Introduction
The Middle East, a region rich in history, culture, and strategic importance, has long been at the center of global geopolitical struggles. With its vast energy resources, key maritime chokepoints, and strategic location between Asia, Africa, and Europe, the region is crucial to international politics and economic stability. Over the past few decades, the Middle East has witnessed dramatic shifts in political and military alliances, driven by factors such as regional rivalries, changing global power dynamics, ideological differences, and evolving security concerns. These shifts have profound implications not only for the countries within the region but also for the broader international community.
This article explores the shifting alliances in the Middle East, examining the key drivers behind these changes, the role of external powers, and the potential implications for regional and global stability.
Historical Context: Traditional Alliances in the Middle East
Historically, the Middle East has been a region marked by complex political and military alliances, many of which were influenced by external powers such as the United States, the Soviet Union, and colonial European states. Following the end of World War II and the establishment of Israel in 1948, the Middle East saw the alignment of various countries along Cold War lines, with the U.S. and its allies on one side, and the Soviet Union supporting various Arab states and left-wing movements on the other.
The United States, in particular, has played a significant role in shaping the geopolitics of the Middle East since the 20th century. American alliances with countries like Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Egypt were forged during the Cold War, with the primary goal of containing Soviet influence in the region. These relationships were also deeply influenced by oil politics, with the U.S. seeking to secure access to the region’s vast energy reserves.
At the same time, the rise of political Islam and the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979 shifted the regional power dynamics. Iran, once an ally of the U.S., became an ideological and political adversary, leading to the formation of a new set of alliances. The Middle East’s alliances were thus fluid and subject to the vagaries of both local politics and global superpower competition.
Shifting Alliances in the 21st Century
In recent years, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East has undergone dramatic changes, with new alliances forming while traditional relationships have weakened or fractured. Several key factors have driven these shifts:
1. The Decline of U.S. Influence and the Rise of Regional Powers
The U.S., which has traditionally been the dominant external power in the region, has experienced a relative decline in its influence in the 21st century. The costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, along with the financial and military commitments required to maintain its presence in the region, have prompted the U.S. to reconsider its strategic priorities. In recent years, the Trump administration’s “America First” policy further signaled a shift toward retrenchment from the Middle East, leaving a vacuum that regional powers were quick to fill.
In response to the perceived U.S. withdrawal, regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, and Iran have pursued more independent and sometimes conflicting foreign policies, often clashing over regional dominance. These shifting dynamics have created new alliances and exacerbated existing rivalries.
2. The Role of Iran and its Regional Ambitions
Iran’s growing influence in the Middle East has been one of the most significant developments of the 21st century. After the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iran’s strategic position in the region strengthened, particularly with its influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Iran’s support for proxy groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and various militias in Iraq and Syria has expanded its reach, while its nuclear ambitions have raised concerns among its regional neighbors and the international community.
Iran’s rising influence has led to the formation of an informal alliance between Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Hezbollah, often referred to as the “Axis of Resistance.” This alliance is united by a common opposition to U.S. influence in the region and by shared ideological and religious ties, particularly among Shiite Muslims. However, Iran’s regional ambitions have also put it at odds with many Arab states, particularly Sunni-majority countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt.
3. The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry and Sectarian Tensions
One of the defining features of Middle Eastern geopolitics is the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, two of the region’s most powerful countries. This rivalry, rooted in sectarian differences (Shia vs. Sunni), has contributed to proxy wars and instability in places like Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain.
The Saudi-Iranian rivalry reached new heights after the Arab Spring in 2011, which led to the toppling of regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. Saudi Arabia, fearing the rise of Iranian influence in the wake of the Arab uprisings, sought to counter Tehran’s growing power. This resulted in Saudi intervention in Yemen in 2015, where it supported the internationally recognized government against Houthi rebels, who are backed by Iran. The conflict in Syria has similarly seen Saudi Arabia and Iran backing opposing factions, with the Saudis supporting Sunni rebels and Iran backing the Assad regime, which is aligned with Hezbollah.
The rivalry between these two regional powers is not only sectarian but also political. Iran’s revolution in 1979 and its subsequent efforts to export its ideology have positioned it as a challenger to the traditional status quo of monarchies and autocracies in the region. Saudi Arabia, the custodian of Islam’s holiest sites and a leader of the Arab world, views Iran’s influence as a direct threat to its own leadership in the region.
4. The UAE and Saudi Arabia’s Shifting Relationships
In recent years, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while still sharing many interests, have shown signs of diverging in their foreign policies. While both countries have been key players in the Yemen conflict and the wider anti-Iran alliance, they have had differing approaches to certain regional issues. The UAE, under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ), has become increasingly assertive in pursuing its own foreign policy goals, which sometimes conflict with Saudi interests.
For example, the UAE has maintained a more independent position regarding its relationship with Iran. Despite being part of the Saudi-led coalition against Iran in Yemen, the UAE has sought to engage diplomatically with Iran and de-escalate tensions in the Gulf. Additionally, the UAE has strengthened its ties with Israel in recent years, culminating in the Abraham Accords in 2020, a historic normalization of relations between Israel and the UAE, followed by Bahrain. This rapprochement with Israel is a significant shift in the geopolitics of the region, reflecting a changing regional landscape where concerns about Iran’s nuclear program and regional influence have led to a pragmatic approach to Israel.
5. The Rise of Turkey as a Regional Power
Turkey has emerged as a key player in the Middle East in recent years, pursuing a more active foreign policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Historically, Turkey was a member of NATO and enjoyed close relations with the U.S. and Western Europe. However, in recent years, Turkey has increasingly diverged from Western allies, pursuing its own regional ambitions.
Turkey’s military interventions in Syria and Libya, along with its support for certain Islamist groups, have been a source of tension with both Russia and the U.S. In Syria, Turkey has clashed with Kurdish groups that are viewed as terrorist organizations by Ankara but have been supported by the U.S. in the fight against ISIS. Additionally, Turkey has sought to expand its influence in North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean, where it has contested maritime boundaries with Greece and Cyprus, as well as developed closer ties with countries like Qatar.
Turkey’s complex relationships with regional actors, including its NATO membership and increasing alliances with countries like Qatar, have positioned it as a bridge between the West and the Middle East. However, its growing ties with Russia and its pursuit of an independent foreign policy make Turkey a key actor to watch in the shifting geopolitical landscape of the region.
6. The Impact of the Abraham Accords
The normalization of relations between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain in 2020, known as the Abraham Accords, marks a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. The agreements, brokered by the Trump administration, have led to unprecedented cooperation between Israel and the two Gulf states. This development, driven by shared concerns about Iran’s regional influence and nuclear ambitions, has led to new security and economic partnerships in the region.
The Abraham Accords have raised questions about the future of the Palestinian issue and the broader Arab-Israeli conflict. While the UAE and Bahrain have acknowledged Israel’s right to exist and have agreed to diplomatic and economic relations, countries like Saudi Arabia have not yet followed suit. However, the agreements have altered the regional balance of power, opening the door for other Arab states to consider normalizing ties with Israel in exchange for security and economic cooperation.
Conclusion: A Complex Future for Middle Eastern Alliances
The Middle East is undergoing profound changes in its geopolitical alliances, driven by a variety of factors, including the decline of U.S. influence, the rise of regional powers like Iran and Turkey, shifting priorities within Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the increasing strategic importance of Israel. As alliances become more fluid and unpredictable, the traditional notions of regional power and influence are being redefined.
The region’s shifting alliances have the potential to reshape the global order, especially as countries in the Middle East reassess their security concerns, economic priorities, and relations with external powers like the U.S., Russia, and China. The future of Middle Eastern geopolitics will likely involve continued realignments, with states pursuing pragmatic and often competing interests, both within the region and on the global stage. As these dynamics unfold, the ability of regional powers to navigate these shifting alliances will play a critical role in shaping the future stability and security of the Middle East.